Highlights

• We expect TFG to report a 3Q26 core profit of Bt1,810m (+5.1% yoy, +20.7% qoq).
   
• TFG is well positioned to benefit from an earnings recovery theme on higher domestic livestock prices in 3Q26 thanks to high exposure to the Thai market.
   
• We reaffirm our positive view on TFG for both the short and long term on the back of the ongoing livestock price upcycle and continued retail revenue growth.
   
• Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt13.00.
   

Analysis

• 3Q26 earnings to grow yoy and qoq. We expect Thaifoods Group (TFG) to report a 3Q26 core profit of Bt1,810m (+5.1% yoy, +20.7% qoq). The key drivers are expected to be revenue growth and resilient margins thanks to higher domestic livestock prices in 3Q26 yoy and qoq.
   
• Top-line continues to grow yoy and qoq. We expect TFG’s 3Q26 revenue to reach Bt18.8b (+3.5% yoy, +2.6% qoq), attributable to: a) poultry revenue growth due to higher chicken ASPs with volume in Thailand and increased export volumes yoy and qoq; and b) retail revenue growth, attributable to continued store expansion and SSSG of around +3% in 3Q26. Retail revenue could indirectly benefit from the Thai Chuay Thai co-payment scheme, which is expected to boost sales in the food service segment. TFG had 790 retail stores in 3Q26, up from 533 in 3Q25 and 748 in 2Q26. However, we expect swine revenue to decline slightly both yoy and qoq due to lower ASPs, particularly in the Vietnam market, and lower external sales volume as a greater proportion of livestock is sold through the company’s retail stores.