Highlights

• CPF is expected to report 3Q26 core earnings of Bt2,352m, (-62% yoy and -49% qoq), pressured by lower profitability amid sluggish international livestock prices and a lower share of profit.
   
• Looking ahead, we see the short-term decline in livestock prices as an attractive accumulation opportunity. We reiterate our expectation of an earnings recovery theme from 4Q26 through to 1H27, on the back of the livestock price upcycle in key markets.
   
• Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt25.00.
  
   

Analysis

• 3Q26 earnings to be weaker than previous expectation. Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) is expected to report a net profit of Bt2,252m for 3Q26 (-57% yoy and -45% qoq). Excluding one-off items, 3Q26 core earnings are projected at Bt2,352m, (-62% yoy and -49% qoq)
   
• Lower profitability in 3Q26 due to decreasing international livestock prices. We expect gross profit margin to decline yoy and qoq to 13.7% in 3Q26, down from 16.5% in 3Q25 and 15.0% in 2Q26. This decrease should be driven by lower international livestock prices qoq in Vietnam and other markets due to seasonally lower demand. In 3Q36, Vietnam swine prices decrease to VND59,624/kg (-9% qoq, flat yoy).