Highlights

• IRPC reported 3Q26 net profit of Bt4.55b with core profit of Bt4.2b, down 5% qoq but turned from a loss of Bt336m in 3Q25. 
   

• We remain cautious about the sustainability of its profitability in 4Q26 due to higher crude premium and government intervention in diesel prices.
   

• Upgrade to BUY following a sharp 25% correction with a target price of Bt3.00.
   

Analysis

• Core profit in line with expectations. IRPC reported 3Q26 net profit of Bt4.55b (+1237% yoy and 56% qoq), 25% below our estimate due to impairment loss of Bt1.0b. Excluding one-off items, core profit was Bt4.2b, down 5% qoq but turned from a core loss of Bt336m in 3Q25, in line with our expectation.  Crude run and market GIM came in broadly as expected. 9M26 core profit accounted for 77% of our 2026 forecast. 
   

• GIM remained exceptionally strong despite lower run rate. Crude run was 178kbd (83% vs 95% in 3Q25 and 94% in 2Q26). However, the robust yoy core profit was driven by stronger market gross integrated margin (GIM) to US$19.30/bbl from US$9.00/bbl in 2Q26, due to higher diesel and gasoline spreads. The 5% qoq decrease in core profit was due to lower run rate with 46% higher interest expense qoq. IRPC recorded a Bt2.5b net inventory gain, compared with a Bt3.7b loss in 2Q26, mainly due to a Bt3.2b NRV reversal.