Highlights

• Upgrade to BUY, with a higher target price of Bt17.00 (from Bt14.50).
   

• CPAXT reported a 3Q26 net loss of Bt563m. Excluding one-off expenses, core profit came in at Bt1.65b, down 11% yoy but above our expectation by 7%. 
   

• Management guided that the closure of 673 loss-making stores could reduce retail revenue by 6%, but save Bt400m–500m in quarterly EBIT.
   

• 3Q26 marks an earnings trough, with a recovery in 4Q26 driven by the closure of non-performing stores and a low base in 4Q25.
   

Analysis

• Results in line. CP Axtra (CPAXT) reported 3Q26 net loss of Bt563m. Excluding one-off expenses, core profit came in at Bt1.65b, down 11% yoy and 12% qoq. This exceeded our expectation by 7% due to higher-than-expected other income following an increase in data monetisation income. One-off items in 3Q26 before tax totalled Bt2,736m. These include: a) Bt100m loss from the closure of one Makro Cambodia store, b) Bt600m loss from the write-off of outdated assets of software and IT devices, c) Bt42m in acquisition-related expenses for The Food Purveyor (TFP), d) Bt100m from the restructuring of Lotus’ headquarters, and e) Bt1,894m loss from the closure of 673 Lotus’ Go Fresh stores, including asset write-offs, closure costs and employee expenses.