Highlights

• We expect 3Q26 net profit to decline qoq due to seasonal factors, including lower gas demand and reduced sales volumes from the gas separation plant  business following the maintenance shutdown of one gas separation plant.
   
• The Genesis project continues to progress, albeit slightly behind the original schedule. PTT expects to finalise the project's details within 4Q26.
   
• We forecast a 2026 dividend of Bt3.00/share. Maintain BUY, with a target price of Bt48.00 (previously Bt45.00).
   

Analysis

• 3Q26 net profit expected to decline qoq. We expect PTT to report 3Q26 net profit of Bt42.32b, down 19% qoq but up 114% yoy. The qoq decline is primarily attributable to seasonal weakness in gas demand from the power generation sector and lower sales volumes of gas separation products following the maintenance shutdown of gas separation plant no. 6. However, higher equity contributions from subsidiaries and affiliates, particularly Thai Oil (TOP), PTT Oil and Retail (OR), and IRPC, should help cushion the downside to 3Q26 earnings.
   
• Gas business EBITDA to decline on seasonal weakness. We estimate gas business EBITDA at Bt17.48b, down 29% qoq but up 24% yoy, driven by: a) Natural Gas Supply and Trading (S&T), whose gas sales volume is expected to reach 3,844 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD), down 8.91% qoq but up 2.59% yoy, reflecting lower gas demand. A slight qoq increase in gas costs is also expected to weigh on S&T’s EBITDA, which we forecast at Bt2.65b, down 17% qoq.