Company Coverage
Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB): Building A Higher Earnings Base Beyond The Peak
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Bt49.50
Bt65.00
31.3%
Bt52.00
Analyst
Highlights
- The Investor Forum reinforces our positive view on BCP’s earnings base in 2027.
- We raise 2027 core profit by 62% to Bt19b.
- Maintain BUY and roll over our target price to 2027 at Bt65.00.
Analysis
- Investor Forum reinforces a higher normalised earnings base. Bangchak Corporation’s (BCP) Investor Forum 2026 reinforced our positive
view on the group’s earnings outlook. Management aims to grow group EBITDA to Bt100b by 2030, from Bt36b in 2025 and our exceptionally strong Bt84b forecast for 2026. The strategy is increasingly focused on maximising value from its existing businesses, particularly through refinery integration, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), trading and disciplined capital allocation.
- Refining margins should stay above mid-cycle levels. While BCP's planned maintenance will lower refinery throughput in 2027, we expect gross
refinery margin (GRM) to remain supported by tight refined-product supply, continued refinery optimisation and full-year SAF contribution. We therefore raise our 2027 BCP GRM assumption from US$7.00/bbl to US$8.50/bbl. We expect the impact of government diesel price intervention to be manageable. We foresee an impact of only Bt2.3b from the diesel price intervention during Jul 26-15 Sep 26.
- SAF margins should remain favourable in 2H26-2027. SAF was one of the strongest takeaways from the Investor Forum. The plant achieved COD in May 26 and has ramped up substantially faster than we previously expected. Average production reached 6.8kbd in 2Q26 with a target of an average run rate of at least 7kbd in 2027. Importantly, management indicated that SAF-related EBITDA contribution reached around Bt1.0b in 2Q26 despite having only around 40 days of operations. With a favourable SAFUCO spreads outlook, we expect Bt3.5b-4.0b in EBITDA contributions in 2H26, higher than our previous assumption. We see SAF as an important structural earnings buffer in 2027, as its full-year contribution should partly offset the lower refinery run rate during maintenance.
Highlights
- The Investor Forum reinforces our positive view on BCP’s earnings base in 2027.
- We raise 2027 core profit by 62% to Bt19b.
- Maintain BUY and roll over our target price to 2027 at Bt65.00.
Analysis
- Investor Forum reinforces a higher normalised earnings base. Bangchak Corporation’s (BCP) Investor Forum 2026 reinforced our positive
view on the group’s earnings outlook. Management aims to grow group EBITDA to Bt100b by 2030, from Bt36b in 2025 and our exceptionally strong Bt84b forecast for 2026. The strategy is increasingly focused on maximising value from its existing businesses, particularly through refinery integration, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), trading and disciplined capital allocation.
- Refining margins should stay above mid-cycle levels. While BCP's planned maintenance will lower refinery throughput in 2027, we expect gross
refinery margin (GRM) to remain supported by tight refined-product supply, continued refinery optimisation and full-year SAF contribution. We therefore raise our 2027 BCP GRM assumption from US$7.00/bbl to US$8.50/bbl. We expect the impact of government diesel price intervention to be manageable. We foresee an impact of only Bt2.3b from the diesel price intervention during Jul 26-15 Sep 26.
- SAF margins should remain favourable in 2H26-2027. SAF was one of the strongest takeaways from the Investor Forum. The plant achieved COD in May 26 and has ramped up substantially faster than we previously expected. Average production reached 6.8kbd in 2Q26 with a target of an average run rate of at least 7kbd in 2027. Importantly, management indicated that SAF-related EBITDA contribution reached around Bt1.0b in 2Q26 despite having only around 40 days of operations. With a favourable SAFUCO spreads outlook, we expect Bt3.5b-4.0b in EBITDA contributions in 2H26, higher than our previous assumption. We see SAF as an important structural earnings buffer in 2027, as its full-year contribution should partly offset the lower refinery run rate during maintenance.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Bt49.50
Bt65.00
31.3%
Bt52.00
Analyst
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