Highlights

• We expect TRUE to report a 3Q26 net profit of Bt6.97b (+343% yoy, +6% qoq). The yoy increase should come from the low base last year due to a one-time network outage incident while qoq growth is forecast to come from several businesses remaining healthy.
   
• Earnings are expected to remain resilient, driven by continued growth in ARPU and subscribers qoq during the low season.
   
• We maintain BUY with a target price of Bt16.50.

Analysis

• Earnings should remain healthy, reaching an all-time high since the amalgamation. We expect True Corporation (TRUE) to report a net profit of Bt6.97b (+343% yoy, +6% qoq), marking an all-time high since the amalgamation. Earnings are projected to remain healthy, supported by continued growth across several key businesses and lower finance costs qoq. Sales could come in at Bt46.54b (-1% yoy, +1% qoq). However, we expect core service revenue to continue growing both yoy and qoq to Bt41.8b (+1.3% yoy, +1.0% qoq), driven by healthy performance in mobile, broadband, and TV, despite 3Q26 normally being a soft season, particularly for handset sales, as iPhone sales are likely to contribute mainly in 4Q26.
   
• Mobile and broadband is forecast to remain healthy yoy and qoq. We estimate that mobile and broadband revenue growth will remain healthy both yoy and qoq, while Pay TV is expected to rebound only qoq, as yoy growth remains pressured by fewer concerts compared with last year.