Company Coverage
Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB): 2Q26 Results Preview: Record-High GRM Drives Strong 2Q26
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Bt10.80
Bt12.00
13.2%
Bt7.50
Analyst
Highlights
- Expect strong 2Q26 core earnings, driven by record-high refining margins (~US$20/bbl) and higher refinery utilisation following the 1Q26 turnaround.
- Chevron reinforced a positive refining outlook, expecting margins to normalise but remain above historical levels, supported by limited new refining capacity, supply discipline and rising energy security concerns.
- We raise our 2026 earnings forecast by 43% to Bt13b and increase target price to Bt12.00. Maintain BUY.
Analysis
Expect strong 2Q26 earnings, with net profit of Bt6.5b, down 12% qoq due mainly to Bt441m inventory loss vs gains of Bt5.6b in 1Q26. Excluding
inventory and extra items, core profit should surge to Bt6.89b (up 2,261% yoy and 325% qoq), marking a record-high quarterly operating performance.
- Higher refinery throughput with strong market GRM in 2Q26. Crude runs rose to 146kbd (86% utilisation in 2Q26 vs 63% in 1Q26) following completionof the 1Q26 planned turnaround. Market gross refinery margin (GRM) increased to around US$20/bbl (vs US$12.80/bbl in 1Q26), supported by significantly strong diesel and jet fuel cracks amid Middle East supply disruptions. Inventory losses are expected at US$1/bbl, compared with an exceptionally high gain in 1Q26. Overall, we expect 1H26 core earnings of Bt8.5b, already accounting for a substantial portion of our revised forecast.
• Limited impact from government-imposed diesel price cut. We estimate the government's first round of diesel refinery price intervention (Apr-May 26) reduced SPRC's 2Q26 earnings by approximately Bt1.1b. In addition, Thailand's Energy Policy Administration Committee (EPAC) already approved a temporary diesel refinery price discount, comprising Bt1.40/litre during 9-23 Jul 26 and Bt2.40/litre during 24 Jul-15 Aug 26. We estimate the impact from this latest measure at around Bt590m, consisting of Bt168m from Phase I and Bt422m from Phase II. The impact is relatively modest and has already been incorporated into our revised earnings forecast for 2026. Despite the diesel price cuts, we estimate SPRC will maintain a refinery utilisation of around 86% in 3Q26, broadly in line with the 2Q26 run rate, supported by continued strong operating performance.
Highlights
- Expect strong 2Q26 core earnings, driven by record-high refining margins (~US$20/bbl) and higher refinery utilisation following the 1Q26 turnaround.
- Chevron reinforced a positive refining outlook, expecting margins to normalise but remain above historical levels, supported by limited new refining capacity, supply discipline and rising energy security concerns.
- We raise our 2026 earnings forecast by 43% to Bt13b and increase target price to Bt12.00. Maintain BUY.
Analysis
Expect strong 2Q26 earnings, with net profit of Bt6.5b, down 12% qoq due mainly to Bt441m inventory loss vs gains of Bt5.6b in 1Q26. Excluding
inventory and extra items, core profit should surge to Bt6.89b (up 2,261% yoy and 325% qoq), marking a record-high quarterly operating performance.
- Higher refinery throughput with strong market GRM in 2Q26. Crude runs rose to 146kbd (86% utilisation in 2Q26 vs 63% in 1Q26) following completionof the 1Q26 planned turnaround. Market gross refinery margin (GRM) increased to around US$20/bbl (vs US$12.80/bbl in 1Q26), supported by significantly strong diesel and jet fuel cracks amid Middle East supply disruptions. Inventory losses are expected at US$1/bbl, compared with an exceptionally high gain in 1Q26. Overall, we expect 1H26 core earnings of Bt8.5b, already accounting for a substantial portion of our revised forecast.
• Limited impact from government-imposed diesel price cut. We estimate the government's first round of diesel refinery price intervention (Apr-May 26) reduced SPRC's 2Q26 earnings by approximately Bt1.1b. In addition, Thailand's Energy Policy Administration Committee (EPAC) already approved a temporary diesel refinery price discount, comprising Bt1.40/litre during 9-23 Jul 26 and Bt2.40/litre during 24 Jul-15 Aug 26. We estimate the impact from this latest measure at around Bt590m, consisting of Bt168m from Phase I and Bt422m from Phase II. The impact is relatively modest and has already been incorporated into our revised earnings forecast for 2026. Despite the diesel price cuts, we estimate SPRC will maintain a refinery utilisation of around 86% in 3Q26, broadly in line with the 2Q26 run rate, supported by continued strong operating performance.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Bt10.80
Bt12.00
13.2%
Bt7.50
Analyst
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