Company Coverage
AP (Thailand) (AP TB): 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Profit Expected To Recover qoq While Gross Margin Faces Ongoing Pressure
HOLD (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt8.15
Bt8.50
4.29%
Analyst
Analyst
Natthida Chuaysong
Highlights
- We expect AP to report 2Q26 net profit of Bt1.02b (+1.3% yoy, +12.9% qoq). The earnings growth, despite a challenging industry backdrop, is expected to be supported by an acceleration in project launches and strong condominium
sales.
- AP has continued to maintain a solid gross margin despite ongoing pressure from a sluggish property market and tight mortgage lending conditions, which continue to weigh on the residential sector.
- We maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of Bt8.50.
Analysis
- AP expected to report 2Q26 net profit of Bt1.02b. We expect AP (Thailand) (AP) to report 2Q26 net profit of Bt1.02b (+1.3% yoy, +12.9% qoq), reflecting an improvement from the previous quarter despite a challenging industry
backdrop. The company continued to deliver resilient earnings growth even against a high base of property transfers in 2Q25. The improvement is expected to be driven by the launch of 12 new projects, exceeding our previous expectation of 11 projects. In addition, high-rise condominium
projects such as Good Day and Aspire, which carry relatively high gross margins of 30-35%, are expected to help support the company's overall
profitability. Newly launched projects also offer higher gross margins than existing developments, leading us to forecast a modest improvement in gross margin to 28.7% in 2Q26F, (vs 28.1% in 1Q26, although still below 29.2% in 2Q25.) Furthermore, lower financing costs are expected to provide additional support to AP's net profit during the quarter.
- Revenue expected to grow qoq and remain broadly stable yoy. We forecast AP to report 2Q26 revenue of Bt10.36b (+4.2% yoy, +8.5% qoq),
driven by higher condominium transfers, accelerated transfers of low-rise projects from the backlog accumulated in 1Q26, and contributions from newly launched projects that received strong market reception. AP's diversified and high-quality product portfolio continues to meet the needs of a broad range of homebuyers, supporting sales momentum.
Highlights
- We expect AP to report 2Q26 net profit of Bt1.02b (+1.3% yoy, +12.9% qoq). The earnings growth, despite a challenging industry backdrop, is expected to be supported by an acceleration in project launches and strong condominium
sales.
- AP has continued to maintain a solid gross margin despite ongoing pressure from a sluggish property market and tight mortgage lending conditions, which continue to weigh on the residential sector.
- We maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of Bt8.50.
Analysis
- AP expected to report 2Q26 net profit of Bt1.02b. We expect AP (Thailand) (AP) to report 2Q26 net profit of Bt1.02b (+1.3% yoy, +12.9% qoq), reflecting an improvement from the previous quarter despite a challenging industry
backdrop. The company continued to deliver resilient earnings growth even against a high base of property transfers in 2Q25. The improvement is expected to be driven by the launch of 12 new projects, exceeding our previous expectation of 11 projects. In addition, high-rise condominium
projects such as Good Day and Aspire, which carry relatively high gross margins of 30-35%, are expected to help support the company's overall
profitability. Newly launched projects also offer higher gross margins than existing developments, leading us to forecast a modest improvement in gross margin to 28.7% in 2Q26F, (vs 28.1% in 1Q26, although still below 29.2% in 2Q25.) Furthermore, lower financing costs are expected to provide additional support to AP's net profit during the quarter.
- Revenue expected to grow qoq and remain broadly stable yoy. We forecast AP to report 2Q26 revenue of Bt10.36b (+4.2% yoy, +8.5% qoq),
driven by higher condominium transfers, accelerated transfers of low-rise projects from the backlog accumulated in 1Q26, and contributions from newly launched projects that received strong market reception. AP's diversified and high-quality product portfolio continues to meet the needs of a broad range of homebuyers, supporting sales momentum.
HOLD (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt8.15
Bt8.50
4.29%
Analyst
Analyst
Natthida Chuaysong
IMPORTANT NOTICE - DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at the following link: https://research-api.uobkayhian.com/assets/disclaimer/df64a6ea-7980-447c-ae9e-fd19b93257dc, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
