Company Coverage
Bangkok Airways (BA TB): No Improvement In 2H26 Earnings Outlook
SELL (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt19.20
t11.70
-39.7%
Analyst
Analyst
Nonpawit Vathanadachakul
Highlights
- Forward bookings through Dec 26 remain weak, with bookings on the Samui route down 1% yoy and showing no improvement from May 26.
- Upside from a potential PSC increase at Samui Airport remains limited, while elevated jet fuel prices are expected to continue weighing on 2H26 earnings.
- Maintain SELL with a target price of Bt11.70.
Analysis
- Negative tone from the analyst meeting. We attended Bangkok Airways’ (BA) analyst meeting to review its 2Q26 results and the tone was negative.
- Forward bookings weaken. The management provided an update on forward bookings from Sep-Dec 26 and the number of bookings has
weakened yoy. This implies that instead of showing a recovery momentum, the travel demand has weakened even further. Samui route has also weakened, with bookings dropping by 1% yoy, while bookings from international routes dropped by 19% yoy and domestic bookings increased by 4% yoy. This indicates that overall travel demand remains weak despite improved air connectivity. Together with BA’s limited room to raise ticket prices, especially with the Samui route, we believe its earnings outlook will remain under pressure in the coming quarters.
- The upside from PSC increase is insignificant and will not be realised in the near future. BA’s management is currently preparing a request to
increase its passenger service charge (PSC) rate at Samui Airport to be submitted to the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT). BA has started its renovation plan at Samui Airport and hence will enclose the amount of capex (Bt1.5-2.0b) as supporting information for the PSC increase request. The timeline of the approval remains unclear, and the new PSC rate is not specified. However, we believe that the process will be time-consuming as we have seen Airports of Thailand (AOT) take around two years until the new PSC rate became active. Assuming the new PSC rate at Samui Airport matches AOT’s at Bt1,120 per outbound foreign passenger, the upside to our 2027 forecast would only be 1.6%, which is insignificant. Unlike AOT, we believe that this PSC increase will not be a significant catalyst for BA.
Highlights
- Forward bookings through Dec 26 remain weak, with bookings on the Samui route down 1% yoy and showing no improvement from May 26.
- Upside from a potential PSC increase at Samui Airport remains limited, while elevated jet fuel prices are expected to continue weighing on 2H26 earnings.
- Maintain SELL with a target price of Bt11.70.
Analysis
- Negative tone from the analyst meeting. We attended Bangkok Airways’ (BA) analyst meeting to review its 2Q26 results and the tone was negative.
- Forward bookings weaken. The management provided an update on forward bookings from Sep-Dec 26 and the number of bookings has
weakened yoy. This implies that instead of showing a recovery momentum, the travel demand has weakened even further. Samui route has also weakened, with bookings dropping by 1% yoy, while bookings from international routes dropped by 19% yoy and domestic bookings increased by 4% yoy. This indicates that overall travel demand remains weak despite improved air connectivity. Together with BA’s limited room to raise ticket prices, especially with the Samui route, we believe its earnings outlook will remain under pressure in the coming quarters.
- The upside from PSC increase is insignificant and will not be realised in the near future. BA’s management is currently preparing a request to
increase its passenger service charge (PSC) rate at Samui Airport to be submitted to the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT). BA has started its renovation plan at Samui Airport and hence will enclose the amount of capex (Bt1.5-2.0b) as supporting information for the PSC increase request. The timeline of the approval remains unclear, and the new PSC rate is not specified. However, we believe that the process will be time-consuming as we have seen Airports of Thailand (AOT) take around two years until the new PSC rate became active. Assuming the new PSC rate at Samui Airport matches AOT’s at Bt1,120 per outbound foreign passenger, the upside to our 2027 forecast would only be 1.6%, which is insignificant. Unlike AOT, we believe that this PSC increase will not be a significant catalyst for BA.
SELL (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt19.20
t11.70
-39.7%
Analyst
Analyst
Nonpawit Vathanadachakul
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This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
